Both parties face uncertain futures

Razor-thin margins in Congress as political eyes turn toward the 2022 off-year elections are generating jumpiness within both parties. Uncertainty abounds, for both Republicans and Democrats, and the future remains murky for the nation.

Republicans apparently remain under the spell of former President Donald Trump.

Polls show a startling 70 percent of them remain unconvinced that Joe Biden actually won the 2020 presidential election, despite 60 court cases across the nation that found no voter fraud of any significance. 

Trump continues to claim that election victory was somehow stolen from him, and most of his party apparently agrees with him.

As such, Republican presidential hopefuls are biding their time between now and 2024, waiting to see whether Trump will finally concede defeat and whether he will indeed run for president again.

In most presidential election cycles, the wannabees would be sending up trial balloons by now in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early primary and caucus states. Those tentative what-ifs are hard to come by these days, as Trump takes his time deciding whether he’s in for another run. No Republican hopeful is eager to stick his head out only to have Trump cut it off. 

To make matters worse, Trump is under investigation by federal prosecutors and in state courts on a variety of potential charges, both civil and criminal. Whether any of those has legs is at present uncertain. But if any of the major investigations hit pay dirt, the party will be hard pressed to give the former president full-throated support. 

His unfavorables continue to outstrip his favorables among the voting public, according to the polls. Successful court cases would likely stretch that margin even more. 

And neither Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell nor House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has been able to generate much personal popularity. That means the three top Republicans in the nation have only tepid support among the majority of Americans.

In addition, Republican leaders are finding it difficult to land telling blows on President Biden. Biden’s favorability in the polls is well ahead of his unfavorability for several reasons, chief among them being his general likability and the popularity of his policies with the voters. 

But Democrats bear their own burdens.

One of those is a weird finding from recent polls: most voters like Biden’s policies but also want the two parties to work together.

That situation leaves Democrats uncertain which way to jump: do they push ahead alone on Biden’s proposals to spend some $6 trillion on economic legislation, deriving the necessary funds from higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, or do they sharply reduce the dollar amounts in hopes that a few Republicans will support the shrunken targets? The majority of voters apparently leave Democratic leaders in a contradictory maze: vigorous economic expansion vs. bipartisanship.

What’s more, Democrats in Congress don’t march in lockstep.

They have only a single-digit margin of control in the House, and a 50-50 balance in the Senate that equates to a majority only because Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, who presides over the Senate, can vote in case of a tie.

So if one Senate Democrat, or just two or three in the House, object to the party’s proposals, action stalls immediately. The most obvious potential full stop lies in the Senate in the person of moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who doesn’t hesitate to declare his independence from his party’s plans. 

Manchin strongly supports bipartisanship if it’s at all possible. He’s a savvy politician who understands his constituents — he likely represents their preferences.

Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York will need to bow to Manchin’s desires in order to achieve any major Democratic legislative goals. That probably requires the party’s expansive proposals to be pared back.

So both parties face an uncertain path going forward. The nation’s political future remains an uncharted one.