Democrats the underdogs

You’d have to bet that U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, is running for re-election. He is raising money, issuing blanket email warnings about socialism, and is not saying whether he will run. Which suggests he is.

Voters said overwhelmingly in a recent Iowa Poll they would prefer Grassley not run again. He will be 88 in September. But the poll does not say whether they would vote for Grassley against any of four Democrats running to dethrone him.

You’d have to bet on the incumbent.

How does someone run against Grassley, who has been serving in political office since 1959? That he doesn’t stand with farmers? Right. That he spends too much money? Hard sell. That he packed the courts with conservatives? That’s a big reason Trump cruised in Iowa. Grassley will have all the money in the world. He will trot out the ads of him towing two lawn mowers on his farm.

His challengers face daunting odds. Former Rep. Abby Finkenauer won her home of Dubuque County by just six-tenths of a percentage point, and in so doing lost to Rep. Ashley Hinson after just two years in Congress in the 2020 election. What happened to Dubuque is an existential question for the Iowa Democratic Party, because it’s the same question in Ottumwa and Oelwein and Sioux City. Admiral Mike Franken is whiz-bang smart, which you would think is appealing, but Iowans respond to campaigns built around making people squeal. Dave Muhlbauer is a Crawford County farmer and former county supervisor. You have to wonder how he one-ups Grassley. And there’s a doctor, Glenn Hurst of Minden, who is a political newbie running on Medicare for All. Good luck.

Joe Biden’s numbers are weak in Iowa. U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst whipped Theresa Greenfield on socialism. Democrats have lost four Senate races in a row. They’re on a similar track for Terrace Hill.

Voters might be tired of Grassley. Still, Democrats have not shown they can win a statewide race.

Except for Rob Sand. He defeated incumbent State Auditor Mary Mosiman, a Republican. He’s from Decorah, likes pictures of himself in camo, knows how to shoot and doesn’t say stupid things. That’s enough for a lot of Democrats. He is not a crusader. He has not been ambitious in the use of the authority of his office.

Sand is considering a run for governor against incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds. Ras Smith of Waterloo is running and so is Deirdre DeJear of Des Moines. U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne of Des Moines is waiting to see how redistricting affects her House seat before she jumps into the governor’s race.

Reynolds gives a challenger an opening by displaying her mean side during the pandemic. She might be auditioning for vice president by sending troopers to the border and forcing vulnerable meatpackers into work at Covid hotspots. But those hard-line positions might be viewed as going over the top. Grassley combs over his more nativist instincts with the Just Old Chuck demeanor that Reynolds doesn’t have.

Whichever candidate figures out how to win back Dubuque and Clinton is the one who has any hope of beating Grassley or Reynolds.

The manufacturing centers along the rivers were populated by union households that voted reliably Democratic. The manufacturing left for Mexico and the unions are gone. In their absence are frustrated people left behind since the Great Recession of 2008. They don’t necessarily believe that Biden and Co. can deliver.

Democrats have to answer that frustration. So far, they haven’t. When we asked Finkenauer’s press agent what happened with Dubuque, our scheduling for a brief phone interview ran into complications. It’s not clear that Mike Franken can win Sioux City. Sand’s critique of the governor has been mild so far. If Democrats are to win, they have to put their finger on what’s eating at Iowa: How did Steve King prevail for 20 years, and why did Donald Trump win Iowa easily, twice? Why is that?

We haven’t heard the answer for years now.

Art Cullen is publisher and editor of The Storm Lake Times. He won the Pulitzer Prize for editorial writing in 2017.

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