Why I’m ‘Highly Motivated’ to go to Wild Rose on Derby Saturday

By DOUGLAS BURNS

d.burns@carrollspaper.com

Each year I go to the Kentucky Derby I think I should find something else to do for a change in early May. I’ve been 20 times.

This year, I’m celebrating the Derby at Wild Rose Jefferson where we can begin placing bets early.

“We are opening up early at 9 a.m. on both Friday and Saturday so that everyone has plenty of opportunity to make their wagers,” said Travis Dvorak, general manager of Wild Rose Jefferson. “Furthermore, for those who do decide to stay, we will have the race on our big high-definition projector screen. Coaches Corner will also have food and beer specials.”

As always, on the first Saturday in May I am reminded of John Steinbeck’s description of the race in 1956:

“I am fulfilled and weary. This Kentucky Derby, whatever it is — a race, an emotion, a turbulence, an explosion — is one of the most beautiful and violent and satisfying things I have ever experienced.”

Once one attends a Derby there’s but a single serum to stop the love affair with Churchill Downs and the two minutes of the year that make the other 525,598 worth living: formaldehyde.

There’s no better place in the world to be on the first weekend in May than Louisville for the annual running of the Kentucky Derby — the most splendid two minutes in sports and the most spectacular if often supercilious social event one could ever hope to see.

Through the years, I’ve chronicled the Derby from many angles, having witnessed the mosh-pitted drunkenness of the infield, the workmanlike backside where the horses are stabled and the grandstands with its high-hatting swells.

What’s more, the Derby is one of those rare events where attendees actually can leave with more money than they had at the start of the day.

So getting to the bottom line here. What’s my betting advice?

The field is larger than usual, and the 20 horses are untried at the Derby distance, and they’re 3 year olds, so they’re just developing at their own pace. 

That said, when you run the field through a half dozen different handicapping “approaches” the one horse that comes out in the top every time is Highly Motivated (10-1).

Interestingly, though, Highly Motivated is the 17 hole, the only post position from which a horse has never won the Derby. But he has a Hall of Fame jockey, Javier Castellano, aboard, and both he and the trainer have never won the Derby before. I don’t see that as a bad thing. At any given time, you can be the first to do something, and I think they’re due. 

The other horses that keep popping up in the formulas are Essential Quality (2-1) and Rock Your World (5-1). Both horses are undefeated.

There are a variety of bets, the most common being, win, place and show — wagering on horses to finish first, second and third.

My favorite exotic bet is one I learned about reading the Louisville Courier Journal 20 years ago. It’s called a $1 Superfecta Part Wheel. It costs $16 but affords an opportunity for a major payout.

I’m including the above three horses, Essential Quality and Highly Motivated and Rock Your World. To that mix I am adding Known Agenda (6-1) and Dynamic One (20-1).

Using the post position numbers, here is how that looks on a betting ticket:

14-17 (Essential Quality, Highly Motivated)

14, 17, 15 (Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Rock Your World)

14, 17, 15, 1 (Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Rock Your World, Known Agenda)

14, 17, 15, 1, 11 (Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Rock Your World, Known Agenda, Dynamic One)

You need to have one of the horses on each line finish in that position, so you have two shots at the first-place spot, three at second place, four at third place and any of five horses to finish fourth.

I’ll post again on this before the race with more thoughts as the post positions were announced Tuesday and the betting and odds are fluid ...