The Home Dawgs Sports Gambling Column: Conference Championship week

By BRANDON HURLEY

Sports Editor
sports@beeherald,com
@Dawgshome

The fun and games are over. From here on out, this is where the men and women separate themselves.
Gone are the cherry-picking of games. We have to wait a few weeks before we can bet on Iowa and Iowa State football, so where am I going to make my money?
I those programs three weeks in a row... I think I may have to dig deep into my pockets now.
Back to my original point. This is when the college football season gets really difficult. We only have the conference championships left, which means these games will be heavily bet and closely monitored.
Yes, we still have a few weeks left of the NFL regular season (Thank you, football gods), but what’s life without a challenge.
Some of the college lines are outrageous, while others feel like sucker bets. It’s a pretty common theme, isn’t it?
Anyway, if you’ve been following along with the Home Dawgs as of late, you’re certainly aware of our hot streak.
We busted through last weekend with a 4-2 record, completing a magnificent three week run which saw us go 12-4. That tear has pushed our season record to a dazzling 31-19. Not too shabby for the first three months of the column. To boil it down, if you bet $100 on each game (which I hope you don’t. I certainly do not), you’d be up $1,200 right now. Extra spending money for the kiddos this holiday.
Unfortunately, this is usually a weekend when the favorites come up big, so my college picks shouldn’t be too exciting and I really don’t like the NFL slate. Overconfidence can be a terrible thing in sports betting, so I choose to keep my expectations low.

B-HURL’S SEASON RECORD: 31-19
    Last week: 4-2
        - Winners are in bold

        • Lines via Draftkings Sportsbook

1. Baylor  vs. Oklahoma (-8.5) (Big 12 Championship Game)
Initially, I wanted to take Baylor on this one, but, I don’t necessarily think the Bears have it in them after that debacle a few weeks ago.
Baylor may in fact get absolutely pulverized in this one. With a national TV audience hoping the Bears can somehow redeem themselves after blowing a 25-point lead against the Sooners, this could get ugly.
Oklahoma needs a massive blowout to impress the College Football Playoff committee, and despite several close calls over the last month or so, I see Jalen Hurts and company steamrolling their way into the conversation. One more point of interest, the public is absolutely hammering Baylor. Get on board, or wait for the line to shrink and really make your money.  

2. Ohio State (-16) vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten Championship Game)
I was absolutely burned by Ohio State last week, as they obliterated my Michigan lock, hanging 56 points on the Wolverines. I won’t make that mistake again and give you an easy win this week. The Buckeyes throttled Wisconsin earlier this year, 38-7, and it wasn’t even that close. OSU has been nearly unstoppable all year long. The Big Ten’s elite of the elite is easily one of the top two teams in the country. They’ll have little trouble securing a No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff thanks to this coming Saturday’s beatdown. Mark it down. Justin Fields and JK Dobbins help the Buckeyes win by at least three scores. The real excitement of this game will be whether the Over of 56.5 will hit. Ohio State is No. 4 in points allowed per game (11.8) and No. 1 nationally in yards allowed per game (232.3). They’ll need to likely score 50 if they want any chance of hitting the over, but that shouldn’t be too difficult since they lead the country in scoring (49.9 ppg).

3. Georgia (+7.5) vs. LSU (SEC Championship Game)
Here’s where I’m taking a chance, but I have some stats to back it up. Georgia has one of the best defenses in the entire country, allowing the second fewest points per game (10.4) and the fourth least yards per game (257). On the other hand, LSU has torched opposing defenses all year long, posting remarkable numbers along the way. The Tigers are second in the nation in scoring (48.7 ppg), total offense (560.4 ypg) and passing (390 ypg). Now, it may be asking a lot for Georgia, but their defense really has been insane. They’ve only allowed a team to score 20 points one time (in a brutal loss to South Carolina), while they also held Auburn, who rang up 48 in a win against Alabama last week, to 14 points. I see the Bulldogs keeping this championship within a single score, and hell, the Under (54.5) might hit pretty easily as well.
I’ll throw a little bit of extra fuel on this one – the public is absolutely slamming LSU, with 66 percent of the early money (Courtesy of Covers) on the Tigers. Fade the Joes!

4. Colts (+3) at Buccaneers
Before we get rolling into the NFL slate, I have to share a beautiful stat that gets me every week: In a tweet from the Covers Twitter account, we found out that road teams, regardless of being the dog or the favorite, are a magical 106-82-4 against the spread. And if you take that a bit further, road underdogs are a dazzling 70-47-4 against the spread. The moral of the story? There is no such thing as a home field advantage in the NFL.
So, naturally, I’m taking the suddenly slumping Colts. They’ve lost four of their last five since starting the year 5-2. The Colts have actually been a pretty solid road team recently (6-2-1 ATS in the last 9), while another Covers stat has me riding the Indy train: The Colts are 5-0 ATS following a double-digit home loss. To be frank, this is the only NFL contest I feel remotely comfortable with.
In fact, I’m cutting it off at four games. Don’t want to press my luck too much, do I?